Wednesday 19 December, 2018

Tropical Storm Kirk moving across Barbados, Lesser Antilles now

The timing graphics are created using the same Monte Carlo wind speed probability model that is currently used to determine the risk of tropical-storm- and hurricane-force winds at individual locations – a model in which 1000 plausible scenarios are constructed using the official NHC tropical cyclone forecast and its historical errors. (SOURCE: US NHC)

The timing graphics are created using the same Monte Carlo wind speed probability model that is currently used to determine the risk of tropical-storm- and hurricane-force winds at individual locations – a model in which 1000 plausible scenarios are constructed using the official NHC tropical cyclone forecast and its historical errors. (SOURCE: US NHC)

Tropical Storm Kirk is here.

The 2:00 pm Advisory from the United States (US) National Hurricane Centre says tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the warning area in a few hours, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in a few hours.

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A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

1. Barbados

2. St. Lucia

3. Dominica

4. Martinique

5. Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:

1. St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Since the 11:00 am update from the hurricane hunters, Tropical Storm has shifted to the North slightly.

Location: 14.0N 59.9W or about 60 miles or 100 km North-North-West of Barbados or about 90 miles or 140 km East-South-East of Martinique

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Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph or 85 km/h with higher gusts

Present movement: West-North-West or 290 degrees at 14 mph or 22 km/h

Minimum central pressure: The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 1000 mbar

Tropical Storm Kirk's path: 

At 2:00 pm AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 59.9 West. Kirk is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days.

On the forecast track, the center of Kirk will move across the Lesser Antilles within the Tropical Storm Warning area by this evening. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days, but Kirk is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea as a tropical storm.

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