Wednesday 28 October, 2020

BMS: 90 per cent chance of system heading towards C'bean becoming a TS

Barbadians are being called to check with the Barbados Meteorological (BMS) Services daily this week as it closely monitors an area of disturbed weather located near 11N 35W.

That is 2,700 km or 1,690 miles to the East of Barbados. 

At present, the BMS stated that although the system has become better organized during the course of the night, convection remains poorly organized for now primarily due to the rather broad circulation and dry air wrapping in from the north east of the system.

There are no watches or warnings in effect for Barbados and this system posses absolutely no threat to the island at this time.

Intensity Forecast: As the system progresses westward, some slow but gradual development is forecast and a tropical depression is likely to develop over the next day or two.

Track Forecast: Currently there is a fairly good consenus in the model guidance that the system will track westward and then west northwestward over the next few days.

With that being said, such a track would take the center and associated cyclone winds closer to the Leeward islands well away from Barbados by Thursday, July 30, 2020.

US NHC Update

The US National Hurricane Centre posted their Tropical Weather Outlook update at 2 pm, today (July 26) and added:

"A broad area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce a wide area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves westward around 20 mph.

Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form within the next two or three days as the system nears the Lesser Antilles.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent."

This is the same system that the BMS is monitoring.

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