Monday 28 September, 2020

Met Office: Tropical Storm to pass north of Barbados

The Barbados Meteorological Services is closely monitoring the progress of Tropical Depression number Eleven.

The weather system is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm by tonight (August 12) as the dry air entrainment and wind shear is forecast to diminish enough to allow the system to get better organized. 

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At 11 am the depression was centered near 12.4N 44.2W or about 1035 miles or 1665 kilometers to the east of Barbados. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35mph (55km/h) and the estimated minimum central pressure is 1007mb.

On its current forecast track, the system should pass well north of Barbados on Saturday August 15, 2020.

Southeasterly wind shear along with dry air to the east and southeast of the system continued to hinder any further intensification over the past 12 hours. This has resulted in the occasional weakening of deep convection over the eastern and southeastern sections of the depression.

By Friday, southwesterly wind shear is expected to significantly impact the system structure resulting in weakening as it nears the northern Leewards.

The next update will be at 12 pm on August 13, 2020 or sooner if conditions warrant.

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