Monday 10 August, 2020

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9: Flash-flood Warning issued for Barbados

A Flash-Flood Warning and a Small-Craft Warning are in effect for Barbados, issued by the Barbados Meteorological Services (BMS).

The US National Hurricane Centre at 11 pm reported that a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Turks aand Caicos and the Southern Coast of the Dominican Republic. Also, heavy rainfall and Tropical Storm conditions nearing the Leeward Islands are forecast.

The BMS' Flash-Flood Warning went into effect at 6 pm.

 

Barbados' Met Office continues to closely monitor the progress of an area of disturbed weather which is currently affecting the island. The system is moving westward near 20 to 25 mph. A reconnaissance aircraft investigated the system this afternoon found it rather difficult to find a closed circulation.

Convection associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine during the course of the afternoon hasn't changed much on satellite imagery. However, scattered deep convective clusters continue to persist mainly on the western side of the system.

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Rain: Rainfall accumulations of 25mm to 50mm (1 to 2 inches) are already being reported across some sections of the island of Barbados during the past few hours. There is the expectation of a further 50mm to 75mm (2 to 3 inches) with isolated higher amounts as this system continues to traverse the area.

The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rain accumulations:

Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and US Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches.

Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches.

Across the Dominican Republic: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches.

These rainfall amounts could lead to life threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding.

Current Situation: Convection associated with the system during the course of the afternoon hasn't changed much on satellite imagery. However, scattered deep convective clusters continue to persist mainly on the western side of the system. The system remains elongated with a distinctive northeast through southwest orientation which is creating a challenge in forecasting where along the elongated circulation the system will consolidate its center.

Furthermore, as with developing systems of this nature, it would not be surprising if there are multiple centers as it becomes better organized. There are presently no tropical storm watches or warnings in effect for Barbados, however some moderate to heavy showers, isolated thunderstorms and occasional gusty winds will continue to affect Barbados tonight and into Wednesday.

Intensity Forecast: As the system maintains its westward motion, some slow but gradual development is forecast and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to develop over the next 24 to 48 hours. This system posses no threat to Barbados as it relates to tropical storm-force winds.

Track Forecast: There hasn't been any significant change in the forecast track from the previous 12:30 pm statement. There is still currently good agreement on the feature passing to the north of Barbados later tonight and into early Wednesday morning.

Watches and Warning from US NHC at 11 pm (July 28):
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of The Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Turks and Caicos Islands. The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern coast of its country from the border with Haiti eastward to Punta Caucedo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* US Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe, Martinique, St Martin, and St Barthelemy
* Saba and St Eustatius
* St Maarten
* Dominica
* Dominican Republic from Punta Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano and then westward along the northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from the southern Haiti border eastward to Punta Caucedo
* Turks and Caicos Islands

Interests elsewhere in the southeast and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system.

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